{"schema_version":"1.0","id":"L-2026-0031","internal_id":"L-2026-0031","name":null,"aliases":[],"kind":"extratropical","basin":"NPAC","status":"forecast","cycle":"2026-09-26T06:00:00Z","generated_at":"2026-09-26T18:40:30Z","sources":[{"model":"gefs","cycle":"2026-09-26T06:00:00Z","members":31,"provider":"emc-ml","arrived_at":"2026-09-26T13:03:56Z"},{"model":"gfs","cycle":"2026-09-26T06:00:00Z","members":1,"provider":"emc-ml","arrived_at":"2026-09-26T13:03:56Z"}],"headline":{"text":"Low bottoming out near 992 mb Sun night, about 90 mi NE of Kodiak; 3 in 10 forecasts show it","confidence":"low"},"p_storm":0.258,"agreement":100,"trend":null,"flags":{"noreaster":false,"p_bomb":0.0,"min_pressure_hpa":{"p10":990.7,"p50":992.0,"p90":997.3}},"members":[{"model":"gefs","member":"p09","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[54,60,66,72,78,84,90,96,102,108,114,120,126,132,138],"lat":[57.9,57.9,58.1,58.3,58.3,58.5,58.5,58.6,59.0,59.2,59.7,59.9,58.7,58.9,59.3],"lon":[-150.6,-148.4,-147.3,-146.3,-145.8,-145.6,-145.0,-145.0,-145.8,-145.6,-146.8,-148.3,-147.6,-147.8,-148.4],"p":[991.0,991.0,992.0,992.0,993.0,994.0,996.0,996.0,997.0,998.0,1000.0,1001.0,1002.0,1000.0,1000.0],"wind":[10.8,10.8,12.9,13.4,14.4,12.9,14.4,12.9,12.9,12.3,11.8,10.3,10.3,11.3,12.3]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p14","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[66,72,78,84,90,96,102,108,114],"lat":[57.9,57.9,56.1,56.3,57.6,58.1,58.3,58.4,58.4],"lon":[-149.1,-147.4,-144.9,-142.5,-141.0,-140.6,-140.7,-141.6,-145.0],"p":[993.0,995.0,997.0,999.0,1002.0,1005.0,1006.0,1008.0,1009.0],"wind":[11.3,12.3,14.4,13.4,10.8,9.3,8.2,8.2,9.3]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p19","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[60,66,72,78,84,90,96,102,108,114],"lat":[57.2,57.0,57.1,57.0,57.2,57.6,57.3,57.5,57.6,58.1],"lon":[-152.2,-149.3,-146.5,-144.1,-142.0,-141.0,-138.7,-138.7,-139.0,-140.0],"p":[992.0,993.0,995.0,996.0,998.0,1000.0,1001.0,1002.0,1004.0,1005.0],"wind":[14.4,13.9,15.4,14.9,12.9,12.3,13.4,11.3,10.3,10.8]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p22","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[54,60,66,72,78,84,90,96,102,108,114,120],"lat":[58.2,58.5,58.9,58.9,59.0,58.9,58.9,58.9,59.1,59.4,60.1,62.3],"lon":[-149.8,-147.8,-147.0,-146.9,-146.0,-145.5,-144.5,-143.4,-143.2,-143.5,-144.6,-146.4],"p":[990.0,990.0,991.0,992.0,993.0,994.0,995.0,996.0,998.0,1000.0,1002.0,1003.0],"wind":[12.3,11.3,12.3,12.9,12.9,11.3,12.3,13.9,11.8,13.4,12.3,7.7]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p26","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[90,96,102,108,114,120,126,132],"lat":[57.9,58.1,57.8,57.9,58.0,58.3,58.7,59.1],"lon":[-140.5,-140.4,-140.3,-139.5,-139.1,-139.0,-139.6,-142.6],"p":[998.0,999.0,1000.0,1001.0,1003.0,1004.0,1005.0,1007.0],"wind":[12.3,10.3,10.3,9.8,10.3,8.2,7.7,7.7]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p27","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[54,60,66,72,78,84,90,96,102],"lat":[58.4,57.6,57.8,57.9,57.9,56.9,56.9,56.9,57.1],"lon":[-150.5,-149.5,-148.2,-147.6,-147.1,-144.4,-142.9,-141.6,-141.0],"p":[992.0,992.0,993.0,994.0,995.0,996.0,998.0,1000.0,1001.0],"wind":[11.3,10.8,10.8,11.3,11.8,12.9,13.4,14.4,12.3]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p28","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[54,60,66,72,78,84,90,96,102,108],"lat":[58.9,58.6,58.0,57.7,57.9,58.2,58.5,58.6,58.5,58.6],"lon":[-149.0,-147.9,-146.9,-144.7,-142.9,-142.0,-141.6,-141.4,-140.9,-140.4],"p":[991.0,992.0,993.0,994.0,994.0,995.0,996.0,998.0,1000.0,1003.0],"wind":[11.3,13.4,12.9,11.8,12.3,13.9,12.9,12.3,11.8,11.8]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p30","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[90,96,102,108,114,120,126,132],"lat":[58.5,58.5,58.4,58.5,58.8,58.8,58.9,58.8],"lon":[-143.9,-144.4,-144.0,-143.1,-142.9,-142.4,-141.0,-139.6],"p":[997.0,999.0,1000.0,1001.0,1002.0,1005.0,1009.0,1013.0],"wind":[12.9,14.4,14.4,14.4,13.9,14.4,14.4,13.4]}],"scenarios":[{"id":0,"label":"Main track","share":1.0,"n":8,"medoid":{"model":"gefs","member":"p28"},"track":{"t":[54,60,66,72,78,84,90,96,102,108,114,120],"lat":[58.3,57.9,57.95,57.9,57.9,57.7,58.2,58.3,58.35,58.5,58.6,59.35],"lon":[-150.15,-148.4,-147.75,-146.7,-145.35,-143.45,-142.25,-141.5,-140.95,-141.6,-143.75,-144.4],"p":[991.0,992.0,993.0,994.0,994.5,995.5,997.5,999.0,1000.0,1001.0,1002.5,1003.5],"wind":[11.3,11.3,12.6,12.6,13.6,12.9,12.6,13.1,11.8,11.8,11.3,9.3]},"cone":{"level":0.67,"calibrated":false,"inflation":1.2,"ellipses":[{"t":60,"lat":57.97,"lon":-149.18,"a_km":221.7,"b_km":50.0,"angle_deg":59.7},{"t":66,"lat":57.95,"lon":-147.98,"a_km":154.3,"b_km":57.9,"angle_deg":42.0},{"t":72,"lat":57.97,"lon":-146.56,"a_km":127.1,"b_km":101.2,"angle_deg":146.2},{"t":78,"lat":57.71,"lon":-145.12,"a_km":215.5,"b_km":140.2,"angle_deg":153.0},{"t":84,"lat":57.68,"lon":-143.64,"a_km":239.7,"b_km":127.4,"angle_deg":140.6},{"t":90,"lat":58.06,"lon":-142.54,"a_km":202.4,"b_km":102.9,"angle_deg":118.2},{"t":96,"lat":58.14,"lon":-141.91,"a_km":245.2,"b_km":100.8,"angle_deg":114.9},{"t":102,"lat":58.23,"lon":-141.8,"a_km":264.5,"b_km":88.4,"angle_deg":115.6},{"t":108,"lat":58.53,"lon":-141.78,"a_km":272.4,"b_km":58.4,"angle_deg":115.3},{"t":114,"lat":58.88,"lon":-143.02,"a_km":338.5,"b_km":102.7,"angle_deg":115.5}],"polygon":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-144.4,55.89],[-145.09,55.99],[-145.79,56.2],[-146.43,56.52],[-147.05,56.89],[-149.48,56.87],[-152.02,56.89],[-152.34,56.92],[-152.43,56.97],[-152.46,57.02],[-152.34,57.19],[-152.02,57.41],[-151.17,57.8],[-149.61,58.36],[-148.05,58.78],[-147.3,59.2],[-148.01,59.6],[-148.23,59.77],[-148.35,59.93],[-148.39,60.07],[-148.34,60.19],[-148.19,60.29],[-147.96,60.36],[-147.24,60.43],[-146.24,60.39],[-144.34,60.15],[-142.95,59.88],[-140.9,59.35],[-139.69,58.95],[-138.72,58.54],[-138.33,58.35],[-137.81,57.99],[-137.52,57.56],[-137.72,57.2],[-137.84,57.12],[-138.03,57.05],[-139.0,56.93],[-139.9,56.89],[-140.89,56.12],[-141.08,56.01],[-141.32,55.93],[-141.91,55.86],[-144.4,55.89]]]}}}],"swath":{"radius_km":160.0,"window_h":84.0,"levels":[0.1,0.3,0.5,0.7,0.9],"contours":[{"level":0.1,"geometry":{"type":"MultiPolygon","coordinates":[[[[-150.75,56.77],[-150.25,56.53],[-148.25,56.53],[-147.75,56.43],[-147.25,56.27],[-146.25,56.3],[-142.25,56.3],[-141.75,56.27],[-139.75,56.3],[-138.8,56.75],[-138.53,57.25],[-137.78,57.75],[-137.3,58.25],[-137.53,58.75],[-137.75,58.97],[-138.25,59.23],[-138.75,59.72],[-140.25,59.72],[-140.75,60.07],[-141.25,60.22],[-142.25,60.22],[-142.75,60.07],[-143.25,60.07],[-143.75,60.22],[-144.25,60.22],[-144.75,60.07],[-145.25,59.98],[-145.75,59.98],[-146.25,59.73],[-150.75,59.7],[-151.25,59.47],[-151.4,59.25],[-151.75,58.9],[-152.2,58.75],[-152.7,58.25],[-152.7,57.75],[-152.2,57.25],[-151.25,56.77],[-150.75,56.77]]]]}}],"grid":{"west":-156.5,"north":64.5,"dlon":0.5,"dlat":0.5,"nlon":44,"nlat":21,"values":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3,3,6,6,6,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3,3,3,3,6,6,6,6,6,6,6,3,3,3,3,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3,3,6,6,6,6,6,6,6,6,6,6,6,10,10,6,6,10,10,10,6,6,3,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,6,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,13,13,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,10,10,10,10,6,6,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3,3,13,13,13,16,16,16,16,16,16,19,19,16,19,16,16,19,19,19,16,16,19,19,16,16,16,16,10,6,6,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,6,10,13,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,19,19,19,23,23,19,19,19,19,23,19,19,19,16,16,16,16,16,13,6,3,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3,3,10,13,13,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,23,23,23,23,26,26,26,26,26,23,23,23,19,19,19,16,16,16,13,10,6,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3,3,6,10,13,16,16,16,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,23,23,23,23,23,23,26,26,23,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,16,10,6,6,3,0,0,0,0,0,0,3,3,3,3,6,10,13,16,16,16,16,19,19,19,19,19,19,16,16,19,19,19,19,16,19,19,16,16,16,16,16,13,13,6,6,6,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3,3,3,3,3,6,10,10,13,13,13,13,13,16,16,16,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,16,13,13,13,13,13,10,6,3,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,6,6,6,6,6,6,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,6,3,3,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,6,6,6,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,6,6,6,6,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3,3,3,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]}},"cities":[{"id":"kodiak","name":"Kodiak","lat":57.79,"lon":-152.41,"p_within":0.097,"radius_km":160.0,"closest":{"earliest":"2026-09-28T12:00:00Z","likely":"2026-09-28T12:00:00Z","latest":"2026-09-29T12:00:00Z"},"distance_km":{"p10":96,"p50":178,"p90":510}}],"plume":{"t":[54,60,66,72,78,84,90,96,102,108,114,120,126,132],"p10":[990.3,990.4,991.5,992.0,993.0,994.0,995.7,996.0,997.7,999.2,1001.0,1001.6,1002.6,1001.4],"p50":[991.0,992.0,993.0,994.0,994.5,995.5,997.5,999.0,1000.0,1001.0,1002.5,1003.5,1005.0,1007.0],"p90":[991.7,992.0,993.0,995.0,996.5,998.5,1000.6,1002.2,1003.2,1005.6,1007.0,1004.7,1008.2,1011.8],"min":[990.0,990.0,991.0,992.0,993.0,994.0,995.0,996.0,997.0,998.0,1000.0,1001.0,1002.0,1000.0],"max":[992.0,992.0,993.0,995.0,997.0,999.0,1002.0,1005.0,1006.0,1008.0,1009.0,1005.0,1009.0,1013.0]},"attribution":["NOAA/NCEP/EMC"]}